Happy October! Here’s a quick update on the Austin market… the number of new listings in September jumped up from the prior month, increasing ~2.5% from August, and was up 15% from September 2020.
The increase was driven entirely by higher priced homes, though, as homes priced below 750K were down -3.2% from August, and flat with September 2020. So homes priced 750K+ were responsible for all of the increase in inventory in September and are up over 61% year-to-date vs. the same time in 2020.
Overall transactions in 2021 (gray line), while impacted by the February freeze earlier in the year (see week 8), have largely followed the 2019 trend line (blue line).
When comparing 2021 transactions to 2020, the first half of this year was well above 2020 (+10.5%), driven by a favorable comparison to 2020’s restricted activity in the first half of the year due to the lockdown. So far, though, the 2nd half of the year is lagging (-14.6%) vs. the same time in 2020, which makes sense because a lot of activity in 2020 got pushed to the 2nd half of the year… it wasn’t normal. So now in 2021, marked by extremely low inventory and unrestrained activity (no lockdown) for the whole year it is harder to show growth vs. the 2nd half of 2020… it is simply a tougher comparison. Overall sales year-to-date for 2021 are just a little off the same time period in 2020 (-0.9%).
It is amazing to see the shifts in price points over time, which were gradual up until 2019 when they became radical shifts. Homes priced under $500,000 represented 2/3 – 3/4 of the market up until the pandemic, and now have dropped to less than 1/3 of sales in 2021. Meanwhile, homes priced between 750K – 1M have jumped from 5% of the market in 2016 to over 16% in 2021, and have increased 94% from 2019 to 2021 (YTD).
And sales of homes priced 2M+ have increased ~115% from 2019 to 2021 (YTD), growing from 1% of transactions to ~3.5% in 2021 (YTD).