Home Builder Association (HBA) of Austin – Mid-Year Forecast

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Home Builder Association (HBA) of Austin – Mid-Year Forecast

The Home Builder Association of Austin hosts a bi-annual luncheon in which a market update is provided and forecast is discussed.  I was fortunate to attend, invited to sit at the Heritage Title table (thank you Andrew Shaw!).  There is usually some pretty interesting market data in these presentations, though geared toward new construction.  Information presented was compiled by Metrostudy, a division of Hanley Wood that serves the residential building industry.   Here are some of the highlights:

Overall

  • Austin was #9 in the list of Top 10 largest population gaining metro areas from 2016 to 2017. DFW and Houston were #1 & #2, and Texas and Florida represented 5 of the 10.
  • 2018 has outperformed previous years in sales up until June (last month for which there was complete data) and this is likely due to inventory constraints
  • Median price in the Austin MSA rose to $320,900 in June 2018 (vs. $305,000 in June 2017)
    • Median price for new construction was $323,689 (up nearly 7% YoY)
    • Median price for existing homes was $327,000 (down 0.1% YoY)
  • The top 3 submarkets for starts and closings were:
    • Pflugerville
    • Kyle/Buda
    • Cedar Park / Leander West
  • The highest number of starts and closings is in the 200-300K range

The New Construction Austin Luxury Market (defined by the HBA as $700K+)

The top luxury communities by closings (in MLS) over the last 12 months were as follows:

10. Ranch at Brushy Creek / Overlook

9.   Crystal Falls / Grand Mesa

8.   Lakes Edge

7.   Estates of Flintrock

6.   Steiner Ranch Grove

5.   Rough Hollow Lakeside

4.   Circle C Avana Estates

3.   Mueller

2.   Heritage Oaks @ Pearson Place

1.   Travisso

In terms of what to expect, the forecast offered these key points:

  • Austin job growth continues, driving demand for housing
  • The luxury market—though small–appears to be gaining strength
  • Combination of higher prices and increased mortgage rates
  • Land and home inventory is constrained, especially in key price segments
  • Rising construction costs are impacting developer and builder margins

So the general view was positive and optimistic for the next 12 months.  Austin continues to experience population growth, job growth and rising real estate prices.

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