October Market Update – COVID19 Impact

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October Market Update – COVID19 Impact

Since March, I have been tracking Austin real estate market activity for single family residential homes to see the impact of the pandemic on activity.  By comparing on a weekly basis with 2019, it is possible to see the typical trends and how the pandemic has impacted activity, either limiting or, as is evident now… shifting it around in the year.

In terms of transactions overall, July was Austin’s best month, peaking the week of July 5-11 and then again July 26 – Aug 1, and has started to tail off since then, though it is possible that this is driven not by the typical seasonality (where things slow down due to school starting), but rather due to a lack of inventory.

Overall transactions by week, year to date vs. 2019 are graphed below. While transactions are down year to date about 3% overall, since the beginning of July they are up over 15%.

If I define luxury sales as those priced 750K and above, and look at those separately, it tells an interesting story about the sub-luxury market (<750K), with sales getting hit hard in the early days of the pandemic and gradually coming back to follow the 2019 trends.  Sales are down -7% vs. 2019 year to date, but are actually up ~5% from July through September:

Since June, active listings in the sub-750K price range have been down roughly -50% or more vs. the same months in 2019, with September being the most extreme at -57%. If more inventory was available, sales would likely be much higher. 

It is a different story in the luxury market, where transactions have skyrocketed and far exceed 2019 numbers.  In fact, the total number of transactions in 2020 in the 750K+ price range is roughly +23% vs. 2019.

And the luxury market continues to be more resilient with active listings.  Though on average they are down roughly -10% June through September vs. the same time in 2019, inventory has provided more support for the number of transactions.

So 2020 is making a remarkable recovery, limited only by the number of available homes for sale.  If you are thinking about selling, or need help navigating the process of selling or buying a home in Central Texas, please don’t hesitate to contact me and I can help!


Note:  All data comes from the Austin Board of Realtors’ MLS report, reflecting activity through October 6, 2020.

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