Austin Market Update – July 2022 - Mopac Corridor Analysis

From time to time I compare home prices along the Mopac corridor, from the lake up to 183, divided up into a few geographic areas:

West of Mopac:

Tarrytown – Lake Austin Blvd to 35^th St, Lake Austin to Mo-Pac
Highland Park West / Balcones Area – 35^th to 2222, Mt. Bonnell Dr. to Mo-Pac
1A South – 2222 to Spicewood Springs, 360 to Mo-Pac
1A North – Spicewood Springs to 183, 360 to Mo-Pac

East of Mopac:

Old West Austin – 6^th St to Enfield, from Lamar to Mopac
Old Enfield – Enfield to Windsor (24^th), Lamar to Mopac
Pemberton Heights – Windsor (24^th) to Northwood, Lamar to Mopac
Brykerwoods – Northwood to 34^th, Lamar to Mopac
4_West of Lamar – 35^th to 2222, Lamar to Mopac
2_South – 2222 to Anderson Ln, Lamar to Mopac
2_North – Anderson Ln to 183, 183 to Mopac

Here is an update on that analysis, with full year data for prior years and year-to-date (through June 30th) data for 2022.

The strongest 10-year price appreciation (since 2013, using sold $ / sq ft) has been in Tarrytown (around 170%). Five-year appreciation is also led by Tarrytown at 104%, and appreciation since 2019 (the last “normal” year) is roughly 39%!

The appreciation in 1A_South (2222 to Spicewood Springs), an area that includes Northwest Hills, has been similar. 10-yr appreciation is an impressive 164%, and since 2019 is roughly 87%.

On the east side of Mopac, Pemberton Heights has seen the highest rate of appreciation, up roughly 160% in the last 10 years and 82% since 2019.

From a raw price / sq ft perspective, Tarrytown commands the highest at $861 / sq ft so far in 2022. Not far behind is Old West Austin at $831 and Pemberton Heights at $819.

Below are some graphs to help illustrate the trends highlighted above:

East of Mopac, the neighborhoods further north are denser and more active, so many more transactions occur in those neighborhoods. The other areas closer to the lake are less dense and have fewer sales.

On the west side of Mopac, The biggest neighborhoods / areas are Tarrytown and 1A South (which includes Northwest Hills). Highland Park West / Balcones Area is likely the least dense area and therefore has fewer transactions.

Below is a graph showing overall market appreciation by area based on 1yr, 5yr and 10yr windows, as well as looking at 2022YTD vs. 2019 (the last “normal” year). Tarrytown has seen the highest appreciation in all scenarios. The areas between 2222 and 183 (west of Mopac) as well as Pemberton Heights, are all similar on the 10yr metric. One note… the Old Enfield area has so few homes, and a relatively small number of transactions, that the numbers for that area are more volatile and probably less reliable.

Sold $ / sq ft appreciation by area over the last 12 years, looking at the east side of Mopac and the West side of Mopac in the graphs below. Everyone is following the same general trends, but you can see the relatively consistent premiums for closer in neighborhoods vs. those further north.

West of Mopac the price / sq ft differences are more stable and consistent over time.

If you want to make sense of what’s going on in the market, or would like a better understanding of what your own home is worth, please contact me and I’d be happy to help you. You can also find additional analysis on treymcwhorter.com.

Note: All data comes from the Austin Board of Realtors’ MLS report, reflecting activity through June 30, 2022.

Austin Market Update – July 2022 – Mopac Corridor Analysis