The 2nd half of 2023 has continued to look a lot like the 2nd half of 2022. Total transactions from July 1 to November 30 are only off 2-3% compared to the same time in 2022. Of course, 2022 was down more than 35% vs. the same time in 2021. And we are still down roughly 33% year-to-date vs. the same time in 2019… the last “normal” year.
The most real-time indication of how things are going is pending transactions, which gives a sense of the number of active buyers in the market. This looks fairly consistent with 2022:
November saw a little improvement in activity vs. November 2022, which could be due to a slight improvement in interest rates, which this past week saw the average 30yr fixed rate decline to 7.03% from a high in late October of 7.79%. This time last year the rate was around 6.5%, so not a huge difference, but an improvement.
As far as inventory, the the number of new listings followed the typical seasonal pattern of decline, though the number of new listings in November was higher than November 2022.
Despite fewer homes coming on the market, the slower sales activity has led to inventory beginning to pile up. Months of inventory, particularly at higher price points, is increasing significantly. In the Central Austin area, we are now looking at, overall, about 8 months of inventory. For Austin overall it is closer to 6 months.
Price points over 2M are, overall, showing ~1.5 years of inventory right now which is the same thing I saw last month.
Higher inventory should be having some effect on pricing, and while August, September and October saw declines or no price appreciation, November did see a roughly 5% increase vs. November 2022.